Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin Will 'Explode' Past $90K to Reach $126K Target

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and chief investment officer of crypto investment fund Maelstrom, has made a bold prediction that Bitcoin will surge past $90,000 and ultimately reach $126,000. Hayes stated that Bitcoin's return to its October highs is a "foregone conclusion" and has positioned his fund at maximum risk exposure.

Bitcoin Price Trajectory and Key Resistance Level

According to Hayes, Bitcoin bottomed near $60,000 earlier this year and is now on a trajectory to surpass its previous all-time high. He identified $90,000 as a critical threshold that could trigger an "explosive" rally driven by a technical phenomenon involving options markets.

Hayes explained that a break above this level would force call-option sellers to purchase Bitcoin to cover their positions, creating upward price momentum. Call option writers take positions betting that prices will not exceed certain levels, while buyers wager on price increases. This forced buying by option writers could significantly accelerate Bitcoin's advance.

Inflationary Tailwinds Driving the Bull Case

The Maelstrom CIO outlined two major macroeconomic tailwinds supporting his bullish Bitcoin thesis. The first centers on capital expenditure for artificial intelligence infrastructure. Hayes noted that AI spending has shifted from being funded by cash flow at major software companies to requiring credit creation by commercial banks and central banks.

He specifically highlighted the Federal Reserve and the People's Bank of China loosening financial conditions to support this buildout, with Chinese banks redirecting capital from real estate toward technology investments.

The second tailwind Hayes identified is the U.S.-Iran war, which has compelled sovereign nations to rebuild domestic infrastructure and stockpile commodities rather than save in dollar-denominated assets. Hayes framed the combined inflationary impact of these factors as "higher for longer."

"War is inflationary, the AI buildout is inflationary, and the political will to print money to fund both is what produces the environment for bitcoin to outperform," Hayes wrote. He pointed to Bitcoin's performance against the Nasdaq 100, the IGV software ETF, and gold since the war began on February 28 as evidence that the asset has already begun pricing in this macroeconomic shift.

Maelstrom's Altcoin Portfolio Positioning

Hayes also disclosed Maelstrom's significant altcoin positions. The fund holds large stakes in Hyperliquid's HYPE token and Zcash's ZEC, with NEAR identified as the next major investment target.

Regarding NEAR, Hayes indicated he will explain his thesis in a follow-up essay but noted that it rests on the combination of the privacy narrative and the protocol's intent-based architecture, which he believes creates positive cash flow. "This will flip the script on the disastrous price performance of the token," Hayes stated.

Potential Rally-Ending Scenarios

Despite his bullish outlook, Hayes identified two scenarios that could terminate the crypto rally. The first involves an irresponsible mega-AI initial public offering or merger in the United States or China that the market cannot absorb, potentially snapping investors out of the current manic phase.

The second scenario would occur if the Democratic challenger in the 2028 U.S. presidential election runs on an anti-AI platform promising to curtail capital expenditure buildout. If this message gains popularity, lenders might reconsider whether credit will continue flowing to the sector. Hayes noted that the November 2026 mid-term elections could represent a "slight speed bump" before then.

"It's a bull market; close your eyes and press the button," Hayes wrote. "There will be a time to sell, but it ain't right now."