Bitcoin Could Drop to $50K as Standard Chartered Warns of Further Capitulation

The leading cryptocurrency has retreated sharply from record highs, and one of the banking sector's prominent long-term bulls now anticipates additional near-term losses before a recovery takes hold.

Sharp Decline From All-Time High

Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen to approximately $66,000, representing a decline of nearly 50% from its all-time peak. The digital asset touched levels just above its year-to-date low of $60,000 on Thursday, extending a downturn that has increasingly diverged from traditional equity markets.

While Bitcoin struggles, major U.S. stock indices including the Dow Jones and Nasdaq 100 continue trading near record territory, highlighting the growing disconnect between crypto and traditional financial markets.

Standard Chartered Slashes Price Target

Standard Chartered has significantly revised its Bitcoin outlook, warning that the cryptocurrency could slide to $50,000 in the near term. The bank simultaneously reduced its year-end price target to $100,000, down from a previous projection of $150,000.

This marks the second major downgrade from the institution, which had initially set an ambitious target of $300,000 for Bitcoin.

Geoffrey Kendrick, Standard Chartered's head of digital assets, expects additional market capitulation over the coming months. In comments to The Block, he cited several concerning trends, including persistent outflows from Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, declining futures open interest, and the absence of a compelling market narrative.

"I think we are going to see more pain and a final capitulation period for digital asset prices in the next few months," Kendrick stated. "The macro backdrop is unlikely to provide support until we near [Kevin] Warsh taking over at the Fed. On the downside I think this will see BTC to $50,000 or just below, ETH to $1,400."

ETF Outflows Signal Investor Retreat

Market data from SoSoValue reveals that spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced outflows exceeding $282 million this month alone. Over the past four months, these investment vehicles have shed nearly $6 billion in assets, suggesting significant investor capitulation as some market participants redirect capital toward the surging stock market.

The futures market tells a similar story. Bitcoin futures open interest has plummeted to $44 billion from a previous high of $96 billion last year. Declining open interest typically indicates investors are reducing their exposure and risk appetite for the asset.

Technical Indicators Point Lower

From a technical analysis perspective, the outlook appears increasingly bearish. Bitcoin has broken below both its 50-week and 100-week Exponential Moving Averages, key levels that traders monitor for trend direction.

Additionally, the Average Directional Index has climbed to 30, a reading that suggests the current downtrend is gaining momentum rather than losing steam.

Based on chart patterns, the most probable scenario points to further downside, with an initial target of $60,000. Should Bitcoin break below that critical support level, it would open the door to the $50,000 price point that Standard Chartered has forecast.

Coinasity's Take

Standard Chartered's warning carries significant weight given the bank's historically bullish stance on Bitcoin. The confluence of negative factors—persistent ETF outflows, collapsing futures interest, and deteriorating technical indicators—suggests the crypto market remains under considerable pressure. With Bitcoin diverging sharply from buoyant equity markets, the digital asset appears vulnerable to further capitulation before establishing a durable bottom. Investors should monitor the $60,000 level closely, as a breach could trigger accelerated selling toward the $50,000 zone.