Bitcoin Dips Under $79K as Fed Hike Odds Hold Near 60%

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Bitcoin slipped under the $79,000 mark on Tuesday, extending its struggle to reclaim the $80,000 level as major cryptocurrencies faced broad declines. The leading digital asset traded at roughly $78,800, down over 1% in the last 24 hours, though it still holds a modest weekly gain, according to CoinDesk data.

For two consecutive weeks, Bitcoin has failed to close above $80,000 without giving back the gains from its August rally. This technical resistance comes as macro headwinds intensify, with Treasury yields climbing and the labor market showing unexpected strength.

Zcash suffered the sharpest decline among large caps, dropping nearly 5% to about $1,125. Despite the pullback, the privacy coin still leads the weekly winners with a 33% surge. Hyperliquid's HYPE slid more than 3% to roughly $84, while Solana fell over 2% to just above $103, erasing their entire weekly advances.

Ether slipped 1% to just under $2,482, while XRP eased to $1.39 and Tron barely moved at 33 cents. On the brighter side, Dogecoin and BNB proved resilient, each dipping only a fraction of a percent while preserving weekly gains of nearly 9% and more than 7%, respectively.

The pressure stems from rising Treasury yields, with the 10-year note hovering near 4.8%. This follows August payrolls that came in at 162,000, vastly exceeding forecasts of 53,000. As a result, traders now assign roughly a 60% probability that the Federal Reserve will implement a quarter-point rate increase at next week's meeting—an outcome once considered nearly impossible this spring.

Meanwhile, the dollar index eased to just under 99 for a second session as yen buyers positioned for potential Bank of Japan tightening, while gold pushed above $4,430.

"Crypto has absorbed these headwinds without suffering meaningful technical damage," noted Joel Kruger, market strategist at LMAX Group.

Adding to the inflation narrative, Brent crude held above $97 per barrel, a six-week high. Iran's announcement of a near-complete deal with Oman to manage Strait of Hormuz shipping capped a weekend of U.S. and Iranian strikes on vessels and military assets. Expensive crude keeps the inflation impulse alive ahead of Friday's consumer price report.

Asian markets delivered a mixed start to the week. The Kospi surged nearly 5% to its highest level since late July, while the Nikkei added over 2% on an AI-driven memory chip bid. Conversely, the Hang Seng fell almost 1%.

Options desks now show a notable shift in sentiment. Yusuf Fakhro, partner at ARP Digital, observed that "the persistent fear that defined the entire bear phase has drained out," with long-term holders flipping to net buyers in late August for the first time during this move.

Looking ahead, Thursday's producer price index and Friday's CPI represent the final inflation data before the Fed convenes. A hot core print could push hike odds toward two-thirds, placing Bitcoin's $77,000 support level directly in play.

Coinasity's Take

The current market dynamics suggest that macroeconomic factors, particularly U.S. monetary policy and inflation expectations, continue to dominate crypto price action. The muted reaction despite the strong payrolls data indicates growing resilience among digital assets. However, the upcoming inflation reports represent a critical inflection point.

A higher-than-expected CPI reading could trigger a test of Bitcoin's key support zone, potentially reshaping the short-term outlook. Investors should brace for volatility as the market digests these catalysts.