Bitcoin Slips to $73,600 After Hot October CPI as Traders Bet on a December Fed Rate Hike

Bitcoin slid to about $73,600 on Tuesday after U.S. consumer prices rose faster than expected in October, a reading that left traders all but certain the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again next month.

The Consumer Price Index climbed 0.4% from September, the Labor Department said, above the 0.3% economists polled by Dow Jones had expected. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, rose 0.3% against forecasts of 0.2%, according to Investing.com and CoinDesk.

Bitcoin had already been drifting lower before the 8:30 a.m. ET release. CoinDesk reported that it added roughly another 1% to its early losses after the data, and Investing.com had it at $74,123.1 by 09:47 ET, down 1% on the day.

What the October inflation report showed

The headline number did cool from September, when consumer prices jumped 0.6% in a single month. But it still beat expectations and, as CoinDesk put it, stayed well above the Fed's 2% target.

Core inflation held at the same 0.3% monthly pace as September. That matters because the Fed treats core prices as the better guide to where inflation is heading once volatile food and fuel costs are set aside.

There was no year-over-year figure this time. The Bureau of Labor Statistics had nothing to compare against, because price collection stopped during last year's government shutdown and no October 2025 report exists. CoinDesk noted that September's annual readings were 3.7% for headline CPI and 2.6% for core.

Traders now see a December hike as a near certainty

The rate outlook flipped quickly. During last week's stock market turmoil, traders put the odds of the Fed holding steady in December at more than 30%, CoinDesk reported. After Monday's rebound, hawkish comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller and Tuesday's CPI print, those odds fell to zero.

CME FedWatch data cited by CoinDesk showed an 85% chance of a 25-basis-point increase at the December 9 meeting and a 15% chance of a bigger 50-basis-point move. A quarter-point hike would lift the target range to 4.00%-4.25%.

Waller set the tone overnight. He said he favored raising rates in December even if October inflation came in soft, and suggested a hotter reading could justify a half-point increase, according to CoinDesk. At its October meeting the Fed voted 10-2 to hold its benchmark rate at 3.75% to 4%, Investing.com reported.

Bond markets moved hard. By mid-morning in New York, the 10-year Treasury yield had jumped 13 basis points to 4.99% and the two-year yield had climbed 19 basis points to 4.736%, CoinDesk said.

Altcoins and gold fall while stocks steady

Most of the crypto market followed bitcoin lower. Ether dropped 2.3% to $2,080.42, XRP slid 3.4% and Solana lost more than 3%, according to Investing.com. Dogecoin fell 1.4%, BNB was flat, and Cardano was a rare gainer, up 2.3%.

Gold also slipped, falling just over 1% to below $4,100 an ounce, CoinDesk reported. Higher rates tend to weigh on assets that pay no yield, and both bitcoin and gold fit that description.

Stocks proved tougher. Nasdaq futures fell about 1.5% right after the report, but the index was roughly flat about 45 minutes into the session and the S&P 500 was only marginally lower. CoinDesk said both would have been up if not for a second straight sharp drop in Nvidia. Bitcoin, near $74,200 at that point, was still lagging broader risk markets.

ETF outflows and corporate selling add to the pressure

The inflation data landed on a market that was already short of buyers. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs lost $201 million on Monday, according to Farside Investors data cited by CoinDesk, led by $213.2 million of redemptions from BlackRock's IBIT, its seventh straight session of outflows.

That took ETF outflows since November 2 to around $1.5 billion, CoinDesk said, leaving the funds down roughly $1.1 billion for the year after more than $20 billion of net inflows in each of the past two years. We covered the start of that slide when bitcoin ETFs flipped negative for 2026 after a $1.28 billion weekly outflow. Spot ether ETFs lost another $184.6 million on Monday.

Supply from corporate holders is rising too. MARA disclosed it sold 13,597 bitcoin for about $1.1 billion over the past six weeks and plans to sell more. Lookonchain data cited by CoinDesk shows 14 public companies have sold a combined 108,247 BTC in 2026, worth about $8.08 billion, with MARA and Riot Platforms making up roughly 56% of that total.

Retail interest looks thin as well. Santiment data cited by CoinDesk shows the bitcoin network has lost around 108,700 non-empty wallets since October 16.

Washington is another weight

Investing.com also pointed to regulatory uncertainty after Democrats won control of Congress in last week's midterms, a result we looked at when the blue wave hit crypto-backed PACs. Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren, one of the industry's best-known critics, has been tapped to lead the Senate Banking Committee, a move that could bring closer scrutiny of crypto firms.

What to watch before the December 9 meeting

Not every signal points the same way. Oil prices are down about 15% from where they spent most of October, and national gasoline prices dipped below $4 a gallon this week for the first time since late summer, according to AAA figures cited by CoinDesk. A month ago they stood at $4.365.

WTI crude traded around $84 earlier on Tuesday, its lowest since late August, after President Donald Trump signalled a pause in further strikes on Iran, CoinDesk reported. Cheaper energy could soften the next inflation readings, though CoinDesk said it remains to be seen how much Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and his colleagues will be swayed by October's hot print now that conditions have changed.

For crypto traders, the open question is how much of the hike is already in the price. Futures liquidations had cooled to about $184 million over 24 hours before the report, down roughly 84% from more than $1 billion on Monday, according to CoinDesk, so much of the leverage had already been cleared out.

Analysts at BRN were blunt ahead of the data, saying bitcoin needs "real buying, not a lucky break," CoinDesk reported. Until ETF flows turn and the size of the Fed's December move is settled, that buying has yet to show up.