MSCI Drops Strategy and Metaplanet From Its Indexes, Putting the Bitcoin-Buying Model Under Pressure

Index provider MSCI will remove Strategy, the largest publicly listed holder of bitcoin, from its global equity indexes, including the flagship MSCI USA Index. The change takes effect after the close of trading on November 30.

Tokyo-listed bitcoin treasury firm Metaplanet is being dropped from the MSCI Japan Small Cap Index at the same time, according to the November index review MSCI published on Wednesday, November 11.

The decision ends months of debate over whether companies that mostly hold crypto are real operating businesses. It also puts a fresh question mark over the way Strategy has paid for its bitcoin.

What MSCI decided

MSCI's final list of affected securities marks "STRATEGY A" as "Deleted," Cointelegraph reported. Metaplanet and crypto treasury company Upexi are also marked for deletion, while Ether treasury firm Sharplink was placed on a watchlist rather than removed.

Reuters added that UK-based Yellow Cake, which buys and holds uranium, is on the exclusion list too. The point is not crypto as such: MSCI found that these companies look more like investment funds, which its benchmarks leave out.

The removals follow a new screen for "non-operating" companies that MSCI adopted on October 15, CoinDesk said. According to The Block, the rule looks at a company's operating assets and five financial measures, replacing earlier temporary limits on firms that held at least half their assets in crypto.

MSCI's review documents did not give company-specific reasons for the deletions, The Block noted. MSCI's own release says all changes from the review will be implemented as of the close of November 30.

How the shares reacted

The move was widely expected, and the first reaction was modest. Strategy's common stock fell 2.6% in after-hours trading on Wednesday to $119.06, according to The Block. Reuters put the extended-hours drop at 2.5%.

Metaplanet had already closed down 2.53% at 231 yen in Tokyo before the announcement. Reuters noted that Strategy's shares are down around 20% so far this year, while bitcoin is down 15%.

It is worth being clear about what the exclusion does not do. It does not delist the stock from any exchange, and it does not force Strategy to sell its bitcoin, CoinDesk pointed out. The company holds 850,364 BTC, worth about $62.6 billion at the time of CoinDesk's report.

How much forced selling to expect

Funds that copy MSCI indexes will have to sell the shares they hold. Estimates of how much that adds up to vary.

In its response to MSCI's consultation, Strategy said funds tracking MSCI's global investable indexes hold about 13 million of its shares, or 3.1% of its basic shares outstanding and less than one day's trading volume. CoinDesk valued that at roughly $1.6 billion at Wednesday's prices, and BloFin Research reached the same 13 million figure.

JPMorgan's numbers are bigger. The bank estimated in November 2025 that exclusion could trigger about $2.8 billion in outflows, and as much as $8.8 billion if other index providers followed MSCI. CoinDesk noted that forecast was based on MSCI's initial proposal, not the final rules.

Why it matters for Strategy's bitcoin buying

The larger worry is not one round of index selling. It is what losing passive demand does to Strategy's premium.

Strategy has funded its purchases by issuing convertible notes, preferred stock and common shares. That works best when the stock trades above the value of the bitcoin behind it, a ratio known as mNAV. Above 1x, each new share adds bitcoin per share; near 1x it adds little, and below 1x it dilutes holders.

"Losing passive index demand could put further pressure on its mNAV premium, already near 1.08x. A shrinking premium makes new equity issuance less accretive, potentially slowing future Bitcoin accumulation," BloFin Research said, as quoted by CoinDesk. The ratio peaked at 3.4x in November 2024.

The shift is already visible. In its November 9 filing for the week ended November 8, Strategy raised $283.8 million by selling 2.05 million common shares but put only $81.9 million into bitcoin, buying 1,036 BTC. Most of the money, $188.3 million, went to buying back its STRC preferred stock, a pattern that started when Strategy paused bitcoin buying in September to fund a preferred buyback.

The same filing shows a $4.77 billion cash reserve, from which the company drew $21.1 million that week to pay preferred dividends. It reported no bitcoin sales.

Priced in, or a blow to the story?

Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, thinks most of the damage is done. "This outcome has been widely expected, so most of it is already priced in," he told CoinDesk, adding that many funds were already underweight the stock.

He does not expect the selling to spill into bitcoin itself. "Since Bitcoin peaked a year ago, treasury companies have had less and less impact on the market," Thielen said.

Independent analyst Derin Olenik was less relaxed. He told CoinDesk the exclusion "will be a major blow to the 'institutional adoption' narrative that the entire model is increasingly hinging on."

Strategy has pushed back for months. Executive Chairman Michael Saylor and CEO Phong Le called MSCI's treatment of digital asset treasuries "discriminatory," The Block reported, and a September letter argued exclusion would not meaningfully hurt the business but would damage MSCI's reputation as a neutral index provider. Other bitcoin companies are also changing course, with miner MARA selling 13,597 BTC to pay off its loans.

What to watch next

The first date is the November 30 close, when tracking funds have to complete their selling. Thielen noted that such moves are usually priced in well before the event.

The second is whether other index providers follow MSCI, which is the scenario behind JPMorgan's $8.8 billion estimate. Sharplink's place on the watchlist also bears watching.

The third is Strategy's weekly filings. If the mNAV premium keeps shrinking in a market already shaken by hot inflation data and rate-hike bets, more of the money it raises may go to buybacks and dividends rather than new bitcoin.

Both analysts CoinDesk spoke to see one way out: treasury companies that put their bitcoin to work and run real operations, instead of only stacking coins.